WNP: Super Typhoon 02W(SURIGAE) is a very powerful 155knots/ CAT 5 cyclone, showing an impressive satellite signature, 17/15utc update

17/04/2021

2021 APR 17 1420UTC #WESTERNNORTHPACIFIC
SUPER TY #02W #SURIGAE
WARNING 17
As of 12:00 UTC Apr 17, 2021:
Location: 12.0°N 129.2°E
Maximum Winds: 155 kt (290km/h)
Gusts: 190 kt ( 350km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 900 mb
CATEGORY US: 5
INTENSIFYING
LOCATED AT 17/12UTC APPROXIMATELY 600 KM EAST OF LEGAZPI, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 22 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS

Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
M974World
ILES SOEURS
Cyclone Class 4
 Cheers,PH.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

02W(SURIGAE). WARNING 17 ISSUED AT 17/15UTC.ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES ROBUST EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD  OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA  SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA CONTRIBUTING TO AN  OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. SUPER TYPHOON(STY) 02W IS TRACKING TOWARD A BREAK IN  THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH.STY 02W WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.  AFTER 12H, THE SPLIT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST  WILL BUILD, REORIENT AND TAKE OVER AS THE PRIMARY STEERING  MECHANISM, DRIVING THE CYCLONE TO A SLOW NORTHWARD TRAJECTORY AS IT  ENTERS A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. AS THE SYSTEM GAINS LATITUDE,  DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL DECREASE AND CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO SLOWLY  WEAKEN, DOWN TO 110KNOTS/CAT 3 BY 72H. AFTER 72H, STY SURIGAE WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD ALONG THE  WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, CREST THE AXIS, THEN ACCELERATE  NORTHEASTWARD ON THE POLEWARD SIDE. AS IT MOVES FURTHER NORTH, THE  ENVIRONMENT WILL SLOWLY BECOME LESS FAVORABLE AS UPPER LEVEL  DIVERGENCE CONTINUES TO DECREASE LEADING TO GRADUAL WEAKENING,  DOWN TO 85KNOTS/CAT 2 BY 120H.
02W(SURIGAE). WARNING 17 ISSUED AT 17/15UTC.ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES ROBUST EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA CONTRIBUTING TO AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. SUPER TYPHOON(STY) 02W IS TRACKING TOWARD A BREAK IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH.STY 02W WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. AFTER 12H, THE SPLIT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BUILD, REORIENT AND TAKE OVER AS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM, DRIVING THE CYCLONE TO A SLOW NORTHWARD TRAJECTORY AS IT ENTERS A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. AS THE SYSTEM GAINS LATITUDE, DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL DECREASE AND CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO SLOWLY WEAKEN, DOWN TO 110KNOTS/CAT 3 BY 72H. AFTER 72H, STY SURIGAE WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, CREST THE AXIS, THEN ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ON THE POLEWARD SIDE. AS IT MOVES FURTHER NORTH, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SLOWLY BECOME LESS FAVORABLE AS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE CONTINUES TO DECREASE LEADING TO GRADUAL WEAKENING, DOWN TO 85KNOTS/CAT 2 BY 120H.


02W(SURIGAE).  NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT  WITH A GRADUAL AND  EVEN CROSS-TRACK SPREAD TO 345KM BY 72H. THEREFORE, THERE IS FAIR  CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS LAID  OVER BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS DURING THE  SLOW PROGRESSION IN THE WEAK STEERING SEGMENT.NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE CLUSTERED CLOSER AND NO MEMBER TRACK TOWARD LUZON ANY LONGER. THE CROSS TRACK SPREAD IS  NOW DOWN TO 820KM AT 120H, LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE  EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
02W(SURIGAE). NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A GRADUAL AND EVEN CROSS-TRACK SPREAD TO 345KM BY 72H. THEREFORE, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS LAID OVER BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS DURING THE SLOW PROGRESSION IN THE WEAK STEERING SEGMENT.NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE CLUSTERED CLOSER AND NO MEMBER TRACK TOWARD LUZON ANY LONGER. THE CROSS TRACK SPREAD IS NOW DOWN TO 820KM AT 120H, LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.

02W(SURIGAE). 17/1230UTC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 155KNOTS/CAT 5 IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY  DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T7.0/140KTS (PGTW/RCTP), T7.5/155KTS (RJTD); AND  THE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES OF T7.9/167KTS (ADT) AND 152KTS (SATCON)  THAT REFLECTS THE CONTINUED RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM.  KNES AT 17/1130UTC HAD A DVORAK ANALYSIS OF 8.0/8.0.
02W(SURIGAE). 17/1230UTC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 155KNOTS/CAT 5 IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T7.0/140KTS (PGTW/RCTP), T7.5/155KTS (RJTD); AND THE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES OF T7.9/167KTS (ADT) AND 152KTS (SATCON) THAT REFLECTS THE CONTINUED RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. KNES AT 17/1130UTC HAD A DVORAK ANALYSIS OF 8.0/8.0.

02W(SURIGAE). 17/12UTC.
02W(SURIGAE). 17/12UTC.


02W(SURIGAE). 17/1230UTC.
02W(SURIGAE). 17/1230UTC.


02W(SURIGAE). 17/0740UTC.
02W(SURIGAE). 17/0740UTC.

02W(SURIGAE). 17/0929UTC. DMSP EIR.
02W(SURIGAE). 17/0929UTC. DMSP EIR.

02W(SURIGAE). 17/0731UTC. DMSP VISIBLE.
02W(SURIGAE). 17/0731UTC. DMSP VISIBLE.

02W(SURIGAE). 17/06UTC.
02W(SURIGAE). 17/06UTC.

02W(SURIGAE). 02W(SURIGAE).24H SHEAR TENDENCY.UW-CIMSS Experimental Vertical Shear and TC Intensity Trend Estimates: CIMSS Vertical Shear Magnitude : 9.8 m/s (19.0 kts)Direction : 83.6deg Outlook for TC Intensification Based on Current Env. Shear Values and MPI Differential: NEUTRAL OVER 24H.
02W(SURIGAE). 02W(SURIGAE).24H SHEAR TENDENCY.UW-CIMSS Experimental Vertical Shear and TC Intensity Trend Estimates: CIMSS Vertical Shear Magnitude : 9.8 m/s (19.0 kts)Direction : 83.6deg Outlook for TC Intensification Based on Current Env. Shear Values and MPI Differential: NEUTRAL OVER 24H.

17/15UTC. THE JTWC HAS BEEN ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON 02W(SURIGAE) AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS.
17/15UTC. THE JTWC HAS BEEN ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON 02W(SURIGAE) AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS.