Western North Pacific: 02W(SURIGAE) strong typhoon, CAT 4, may intensify to "Super Typhoon" level within 24hours, 17/03utc update

17/04/2021

02W(SURIGAE). 17/0305UTC. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS A 22 KM EYE WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, LENDING GOOD CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. IF NECESSARY CLICK TO ANIMATE.

2021 APR 17 03UTC #WESTERNNORTHPACIFIC
TY #02W #SURIGAE
WARNING 15
As of 00:00 UTC Apr 17, 2021:
Location: 10.7°N 131.1°E
Maximum Winds: 120 kt (220km/h)
Gusts: 145 kt ( 270km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 940 mb
CATEGORY US: 4
INTENSIFYING
LOCATED AT 17/00UTC APPROXIMATELY 490 KM NORTHWEST OF KAYANGEL, PALAU, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 22 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS

Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
M974World
ILES SOEURS
Cyclone Class 4
 Cheers,PH.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

02W(SURIGAE). WARNING 15 ISSUED AT 17/03UTC.ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES ROBUST EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW  VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE  TEMPERATURES CONTRIBUTING TO AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR  FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TY 02W IS TRACKING TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE  SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CAUSED BY AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TY 02W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AND CONTINUE TO  INTENSIFY THROUGH 24H, REACHING A PEAK OF 130 KNOTS/SUPER TYPHOON CAT 4. AFTERWARDS,  TRACK SPEED IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AS IT ENTERS A WEAK STEERING  ENVIRONMENT AROUND 36H. BY 48H, A BUILDING STR TO THE EAST  WILL TAKE OVER AS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM, TURNING TY 02W TO  A NORTHWARD TRACK AS IT MOVES ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE  STR. AS IT BEGINS TO TRACK NORTH, THE DECREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT  WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO SLOWLY WEAKEN.AFTER TAU 72, TY 02W WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN  PERIPHERY OF THE STR. AS IT MOVES NORTH, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SLOWLY  BECOME LESS FAVORABLE AS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE BEGINS TO  SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE BY 72H, LEADING TO THE SYSTEM WEAKENING TO  85 KNOTS/CAT 2 BY 120H.
02W(SURIGAE). WARNING 15 ISSUED AT 17/03UTC.ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES ROBUST EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTRIBUTING TO AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TY 02W IS TRACKING TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CAUSED BY AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TY 02W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH 24H, REACHING A PEAK OF 130 KNOTS/SUPER TYPHOON CAT 4. AFTERWARDS, TRACK SPEED IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AS IT ENTERS A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AROUND 36H. BY 48H, A BUILDING STR TO THE EAST WILL TAKE OVER AS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM, TURNING TY 02W TO A NORTHWARD TRACK AS IT MOVES ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. AS IT BEGINS TO TRACK NORTH, THE DECREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO SLOWLY WEAKEN.AFTER TAU 72, TY 02W WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. AS IT MOVES NORTH, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SLOWLY BECOME LESS FAVORABLE AS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE BEGINS TO SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE BY 72H, LEADING TO THE SYSTEM WEAKENING TO 85 KNOTS/CAT 2 BY 120H.

02W(SURIGAE).NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT DURING THE INITIAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH A  CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 165 KM BY 48H. OF NOTE, THE LATEST NAVGEM  SOLUTION HAS SHIFTED TO THE WEST. OVERALL, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE  IN THE EARLY PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED NEAR  THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. IN THE EXTENDED RANGE, NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK  SOLUTIONS DIVERGE TO A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 830 KM AT 120H. THE  ECMWF SOLUTION CONTINUES TO BRING THE SYSTEM OVER LUZON BY 120H.  ADDITIONALLY, THE NAVGEM SOLUTION HAS SHIFTED IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF  SOLUTIONS IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. THE UKMET, UKMET ENSEMBLE, AND  JGSM MODEL GUIDANCE REMAIN THE EASTERNMOST SOLUTIONS. BASED ON THE  CROSS-TRACK SPREAD BETWEEN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS, THERE IS LOW  CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
02W(SURIGAE).NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT DURING THE INITIAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 165 KM BY 48H. OF NOTE, THE LATEST NAVGEM SOLUTION HAS SHIFTED TO THE WEST. OVERALL, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE EARLY PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. IN THE EXTENDED RANGE, NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK SOLUTIONS DIVERGE TO A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 830 KM AT 120H. THE ECMWF SOLUTION CONTINUES TO BRING THE SYSTEM OVER LUZON BY 120H. ADDITIONALLY, THE NAVGEM SOLUTION HAS SHIFTED IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. THE UKMET, UKMET ENSEMBLE, AND JGSM MODEL GUIDANCE REMAIN THE EASTERNMOST SOLUTIONS. BASED ON THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD BETWEEN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.

 

02W(SURIGAE). MODEL ENSEMBLE: ECMWF
02W(SURIGAE). MODEL ENSEMBLE: ECMWF


02W(SURIGAE). 17/0130UTC.
02W(SURIGAE). 17/0130UTC.

02W(SURIGAE). 17/0035UTC.
02W(SURIGAE). 17/0035UTC.

02W(SURIGAE). 16/2225UTC.
02W(SURIGAE). 16/2225UTC.


02W(SURIGAE). 02W(SURIGAE).24H SHEAR TENDENCY.UW-CIMSS Experimental Vertical Shear and TC Intensity Trend Estimates: CIMSS Vertical Shear Magnitude : 5.5 m/s (10.8 kts)Direction : 101.5deg  Outlook for TC Intensification Based on Current Env. Shear Values and MPI Differential: FAVOURABLE OVER 24H.
02W(SURIGAE). 02W(SURIGAE).24H SHEAR TENDENCY.UW-CIMSS Experimental Vertical Shear and TC Intensity Trend Estimates: CIMSS Vertical Shear Magnitude : 5.5 m/s (10.8 kts)Direction : 101.5deg Outlook for TC Intensification Based on Current Env. Shear Values and MPI Differential: FAVOURABLE OVER 24H.

17/03UTC. THE JTWC HAS BEEN ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON 02W(SURIGAE) AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS.
17/03UTC. THE JTWC HAS BEEN ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON 02W(SURIGAE) AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS.