Western North Pacific: TD 02W(Invest 94W) will be intensifying, forecast to reach US/CAT 4 by 120hours, 13/15utc update

13/04/2021

TD 02W. 13/13UTC. 6H LOOP. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS FURTHER DEVELOPED AS THE MAIN FEEDER BAND, STRETCHED ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERIES, SIGNIFICANTLY CONSOLIDATED AND WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO A MORE COMPACT AND DEEP CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.

2021 APR 13 1350UTC #WESTERNNORTHPACIFIC
TD #02W 
WARNING 1
As of 12:00 UTC Apr 13, 2021:
Location: 7.9°N 137.3°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Gusts: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 mb
INTENSIFYING
LOCATED AT 13/12UTC APPROXIMATELY 200 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS

Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
M974World
ILES SOEURS
Cyclone Class 4
 Cheers,PH.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

INVEST 94S IS NOW TD 02W. WARNING 1 ISSUED AT 13/15UTC.ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT  INCLUDING ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A STRONG POLEWARD BIAS, LOW (05- 10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE  TEMPERATURE IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING  ALONG  THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A LOW REFLECTION OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL  RIDGE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. TD 02W WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWARD OR MAY EVEN BECOME QUASI- STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24HRS AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE  NORTHWEST BUILDS AND COMPETES FOR STEERING. AFTERWARD, A MIDLATITUDE  TROUGH DIGGING IN FROM CHINA WILL BREAK THE RIDGE. THE EASTERN SIDE  OF THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST WILL ASSUME STEERING AND DRIVE TD 02W  NORTHWESTWARD. THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE  STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO 70KTS/US CAT 1 BY 72H.  AFTER 72H, TD 02W WILL CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE  BREAK IN THE RIDGE UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SAME STR. A  RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE  FURTHER ENHANCED BY INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. BY 120H, TD 02W  WILL SURGE TO 115KNOTS/US CAT 4, POSSIBLY HIGHER.
INVEST 94S IS NOW TD 02W. WARNING 1 ISSUED AT 13/15UTC.ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT INCLUDING ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A STRONG POLEWARD BIAS, LOW (05- 10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A LOW REFLECTION OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. TD 02W WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWARD OR MAY EVEN BECOME QUASI- STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24HRS AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHWEST BUILDS AND COMPETES FOR STEERING. AFTERWARD, A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH DIGGING IN FROM CHINA WILL BREAK THE RIDGE. THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST WILL ASSUME STEERING AND DRIVE TD 02W NORTHWESTWARD. THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO 70KTS/US CAT 1 BY 72H. AFTER 72H, TD 02W WILL CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SAME STR. A RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE FURTHER ENHANCED BY INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. BY 120H, TD 02W WILL SURGE TO 115KNOTS/US CAT 4, POSSIBLY HIGHER.

 

TD 02W. GUIDANCE: ECMWF ENSEMBLE. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A GRADUAL SPREAD TO 290KM BY 72H WITH  ECMWF ON THE LEFT- AND AVNO ON THE RIGHT-MARGIN OF THE ENVELOPE.  HOWEVER, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL STORM MOTION SECONDARY  TO THE COMPETING STEERING MECHANISMS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN  THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.NUMERICAL MODELS SPREAD OUT EVEN MORE TO OVER 890KM BY 120H, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE  EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
TD 02W. GUIDANCE: ECMWF ENSEMBLE. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A GRADUAL SPREAD TO 290KM BY 72H WITH ECMWF ON THE LEFT- AND AVNO ON THE RIGHT-MARGIN OF THE ENVELOPE. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL STORM MOTION SECONDARY TO THE COMPETING STEERING MECHANISMS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.NUMERICAL MODELS SPREAD OUT EVEN MORE TO OVER 890KM BY 120H, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//

TD 02W. GUIDANCE: GFS ENSEMBLE.
TD 02W. GUIDANCE: GFS ENSEMBLE.


TD 02W. 13/12UTC.
TD 02W. 13/12UTC.

13/15UTC. INVEST 94W HAS REACHED 25KNOTS AND IS NOW TD 02W . JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ALONG WITH 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TD 02W.
13/15UTC. INVEST 94W HAS REACHED 25KNOTS AND IS NOW TD 02W . JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ALONG WITH 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TD 02W.